Carton enterprises face up to the change of base p

2022-05-25
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Carton Enterprises: face up to the changes in the price of base paper

for the impact of the preliminary findings of the recent anti-dumping investigation of Imported Unbleached Kraft linerboard by the Ministry of Commerce on the base paper market, my personal view is that it will certainly have a positive impact on the domestic paper industry, because the implementation of the margin system will reduce some competitive pressure of domestic paper enterprises. But at the same time, I think the preliminary findings of this anti-dumping investigation have little impact on the price of domestic carton board, mainly for the following two reasons: first, at present, China's dependence on the import of carton board has become lower and lower. According to the relevant industry analysis data, China's dependence on the import of carton board was only 13% in 2004, the lowest in recent 10 years. In 2005, paper enterprises such as Shanghai zhonglong and Changzhou Wangda were put into operation and put into normal operation, How difficult it is to raise the price of cardboard boxes in China; 2、 The market often digests the policy expectations in advance, and when the expected policies or measures are really introduced, the market changes tend to be stable, or a new balance pattern has been formed, which is expected to be completed and put into operation early in 2015, which can be reflected from the continuous rise of carton board prices in the first half of 2005 and the basic stability since the middle of the year

at the same time, any change in the market will become an opportunity for some people. Once the final price of "Meika" rises due to the change of tax rate, suppliers in other countries or regions, such as "Okka" or other Kraft linerboard, can take advantage of this opportunity to expand market share in order to occupy a place in the huge Chinese market. If they take the means of price reduction in time, It will undoubtedly pose a great threat to "Meika". For "Meika" suppliers, of course, they will not wait and see the market changes without any action. If the fixture uses the bending center with the specified diameter to keep the alignment between the bending center and the base, the FOB price remains unchanged, which is equivalent to raising the price for the base paper users, which is bound to lose part of the market share. In order to continue to occupy this part of the market, "Meika" suppliers will eventually reduce the FOB price to compensate customers for the price loss caused by the increase of tariffs. For many carton enterprises mainly engaged in processing trade in Guangdong, that is, the largest buyer of "Meika" in China, since the change of tariff has no impact on them, they will benefit from the slight decline of FOB price. In short, the rise of tariffs will inevitably lead to changes in market prices, but I personally believe that even the price of "American card" will not change greatly. At least it will not increase the tariff as much as the price of paper

as for the potential possibility of domestic base paper price rise, I don't think it is caused by the external influencing factor of "imported paper price rise". In fact, we should clearly see such a situation: on the one hand, we are filing anti-dumping lawsuits against foreign low-cost base paper, while on the other hand, there is more fierce price competition in our own country. People in the industry clearly know that the main factor affecting the price of base paper in recent years is not the price of wood pulp or OCC, but the supply of the market. Moderate competition is beneficial to the development and perfection of the market, but excessive competition will disrupt or even destroy the market

in fact, for carton factories, we do not want the upstream base paper suppliers to adopt irrational price reduction measures because of competing for the market. In a transparent market, every change in base paper price may lead to the change of carton price. Moreover, the closer the products are to end consumers, the smaller the price elasticity is, and once the price goes down, it is difficult to come up again. This makes it easy to understand why the normal return of base paper price after experiencing irrational competition will also cause deep harm to carton enterprises. Therefore, to build a sound supply chain, both supply and demand sides need stable and rational prices. Carton enterprises do not need to "give" the price difference brought by the short-term price competition of paper enterprises, but also oppose the alliance formed by paper enterprises to bid up the price of paper. Although this price alliance will never last, it will disrupt the order of the market in the short term

if you understand the above views, you will understand that carton enterprises seem to have entered the paradox that it is difficult for base paper prices to rise and fall. But in fact, carton enterprises really need the relative price advantage. In such an imperfect market, it involves building supply and reducing burr; Avoid the problem of strategic partnership in the chain caused by stratification. As far as I know, many enterprises in the base paper supply chain have such ideas. Carton factories want to try this, and the same is true for paper enterprises, but there are not many really implemented, and I'm afraid few can be called successful. The main reason for this is the concept. After years of vicious competition, it is really difficult to reverse the concept of single win and single win. It can't be seen or touched, but it does exist. For how to promote the "win-win" market, my idea is that paper enterprises and large and medium-sized carton enterprises need to make efforts first, so as to promote the reshuffle of the industry

in order to seek survival and development, in addition to the procurement and supply of raw materials, carton enterprises must pay attention to internal management. Perfect management in the production process can effectively save the use of base paper and contribute a large profit space to carton factories. This belongs to another management category, so I won't repeat it here

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