Consult the steel industry this is the worst and b

2022-07-02
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Consulting the iron and steel industry: This is the worst and the best time

consulting the iron and steel industry: This is the worst and the best time

China Construction Machinery Information

someone once described the era of capital rule: "this is the worst time, this is the best time." Nowadays, this sentence is especially applicable to the steel industry. The reason why it is said to be the worst era is that the iron and steel industry is in danger and has little profit; It is said to be the best era because the new normal and the "the Belt and Road" strategy may bring infinite opportunities

at the 2015 China iron ore annual meeting held a few days ago, industry experts agreed that the iron and steel industry is currently in a process of self-healing. Low growth, low price, low efficiency and high pressure are typical characteristics. In the future, we must continue to innovate and develop and accelerate our own reform and transformation

speed up their own reform and transformation

in a fairly long period of development in the future, steel consumption and production will maintain low growth, environmental protection pressure and financial pressure are increasing day by day, and business difficulties objectively exist

lixinchuang, Deputy Secretary General of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, believes that in the face of the new normal of "three low and one high", the future development of the iron and steel industry must accelerate its own reform and transformation, from steel manufacturers to production service providers, from domestic based to international and domestic common development, from factor input to innovation driven development, from extensive development to green, low-carbon and sustainable development From the dominance of one steel to the diversified development of industry, from disorderly and blind competition to orderly and coordinated competition

Dou Liwei, President of the Economic Management Research Institute of Angang Group, said that at an internal seminar held last October, the top ten enterprises in the iron and steel industry agreed that the apparent consumption and output of iron and steel this year may have zero growth. "This is an era of loose raw fuel supply, harsh environment and strict policies. It is also an era of frequent technological progress and a silent period before large-scale mergers and acquisitions."

according to hanweidong, assistant to the president of Tianjin Youfa steel pipe group, if the fourth quarter of 2014 is a turning point of excess steel capacity, this year will begin to enter a new era of excess. The specific performance is as follows: the steel production and demand increase slowly to stop growing, and the operation is laborious or negative; From the coexistence of advanced and backward market competition to the competition among enterprises that meet the industry standard conditions of the Ministry of industry and information technology, capital, environmental protection, products, business model and so on are more important than cost; Iron ore prices will end the unilateral downward trend, and a large number of domestic mining enterprises will be eliminated by the market; After more than three years of reshuffle, the iron and steel enterprises and dealers are fundamentally changing their production and operation mode and product structure

referring to the new environmental protection law officially implemented on January 1 this year, Dou Liwei said frankly that the new environmental protection law is not only strict in standards but also strict in punishment. Iron and steel enterprises generally attach great importance to it. The most direct result is that Beijing's air quality has improved significantly since this year

lixinchuang believes that the new environmental protection law will help resolve overcapacity. Due to strict environmental protection assessment, the steel industry will no longer be a cash cow for local governments, and even will gradually withdraw from the market. At the same time, the new environmental protection policy will promote the internalization of environmental protection costs of enterprises, eliminate differences, and establish a fair market competition environment. In addition, the new environmental protection law will also help to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of China's iron and steel enterprises and expand the market space of non steel (environmental protection) industries

Li Na, procurement assistant of Qingdao Liyuan fine Metals Co., Ltd., told that against the background of the downturn in the iron ore market, only a few traders in Qingdao could survive

"although the sharp decline in the price of iron ore has reduced the procurement cost, its sales price is also very low. If the two offset, traders can hardly make profits." Li Na said that now iron ore traders are thinking more about how to sell their ore than at what price

the desolation of ore traders is also a true portrayal of the current iron ore trading market. Last year, the international iron ore price fell precipitously. Whether the ore price can reverse this decline this year is greatly influenced by the industry and every additional job in the aluminum industry. Zhangdianbo, assistant president of Baosteel, said in an interview that with the continuous decline of imported ore prices, the industrial concentration of the four international mining giants will further increase, but whether the ore prices can rebound will ultimately depend on the relationship between market supply and demand

last year, China's foreign dependence on iron ore further increased, while overseas equity mines made little progress. Lixinchuang said that due to the decline in ore prices, Chinese enterprises basically did not participate in overseas projects last year, and the original projects that have been involved have no driving force. Even some projects that have been put into operation have chosen to stop production because the ore prices have fallen below the production costs

zhangdianbo frankly said that this year's iron ore price will not show a unilateral downward trend, and will fluctuate in a price range. On this basis, the risk caused by the fluctuation of ore price will not exceed that of last year. Lixinchuang frankly said that the global iron ore supply will still exceed the demand in 2015, and there was still a large amount of inventory to be digested last year. Moreover, the demand of steel mills for purchasing raw materials at low prices and the affordability of major mining enterprises for ore prices have led to a slight decline in ore prices in the future

export will remain high

from 2001 to 2014, China's steel export increased from 4.74 million tons to 93.78 million tons, an increase of nearly 20 times. In 2014, steel exports showed a blowout trend, with a substantial year-on-year increase of more than 50%, highlighting the cost and scale advantages of domestic steel enterprises

in Li Xinchuang's view, the substantial improvement of steel technology and equipment and product quality is the main incentive for the substantial growth of China's steel exports in recent years. According to statistics, among the main iron and steel equipment in China, the proportion of advanced level of blast furnace equipment has reached 68%, the proportion of advanced level of converter has reached 62%, and the proportion of overall advanced level of steel rolling equipment has reached more than 70%

due to overcapacity in China's iron and steel industry and the slowdown in China's market demand in the past two years, the competition in the domestic iron and steel market has become more intense. In order to alleviate the pressure of survival, iron and steel enterprises have increased their efforts to open up overseas markets, thus promoting a large increase in steel exports

however, it should not be ignored that China's massive export of steel products will also bring a series of problems. On the one hand, China's steel exports are mainly concentrated in ASEAN, the European Union, South Korea, the United States, etc., which are highly dependent on these countries. At present, trade frictions are intensifying. On the other hand, a large number of steel products are exported, and the domestic steel market cannot effectively squeeze the backward process equipment and products, which is not conducive to the elimination of backward products by using the market mechanism in China. In addition, the structure of export products is unreasonable, most of which are low value-added products. Last year, non alloy steel products (including boron containing steel) accounted for more than 88%

lixinchuang suggested that in order to achieve high-quality export, iron and steel enterprises should establish long-term and stable export channels, innovate overseas marketing models, and make use of mature and advanced foreign marketing networks; At the same time, we will optimize and adjust the structure of export products, encourage the export of high value-added products and restrict the export of low value-added products

"it is also necessary to optimize the structure of exporting countries, encourage enterprises to actively expand non" double anti "steel exports from Europe, America and other countries, take the initiative to occupy the markets of emerging economies, and avoid excessive concentration of steel exports, resulting in increased trade friction." Lixinchuang said

it is predicted that China's steel export will reach 80million ~ 90million tons this year, and China's steel export will still maintain a large scale in the next five years. The relevant person in charge of Shagang international trade company also said that the export volume of Anshan Iron and steel headquarters reached 4million tons last year and will strive to further increase to more than 6million tons this year

the "the Belt and Road" initiative leverages business opportunities

at present, the new normal and the "the Belt and Road" strategy have brought rare opportunities for the internationalization of the steel industry

Liu Xiao, an Anbang consulting analyst, believes that China's economic development has entered a new normal, and its typical features include the decline in investment driven by the real estate transition, the industrial structure adjustment driven by demand upgrading, and the new round of globalization led by China's net capital output. The "the Belt and Road" is an important part of the new normal

the production and management of enterprises are also facing changes. "The 'the Belt and Road' strategy will boost the internationalization process of Chinese enterprises, including the global allocation of mineral resources, production capacity and financial output, from the world factory to the Chinese market. In essence, it is the beginning of China's leading the era of globalization." However, in a round of overseas mergers and acquisitions of China's mining industry since 2005, the success rate of international mergers and acquisitions of enterprises is only 5%, and many of these 5% successful cases have been proved to be "expensive"

Liu Xiao reminded that at present, the risks faced by Chinese enterprises in "going global" are mainly concentrated in RMB exchange rate risk, engineering risk and political risk. Take the exchange rate risk as an example. In 2014, the RMB exchange rate depreciated by 2% against the US dollar. Since October last year, the RMB exchange rate has been in a downward range. This trend will continue in the first half of this year, and the annual depreciation rate may even reach 5%

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